Natural gas futures spread F1 – F12 as indicator of long term price trend formation and its forecast

Last update 06 May, 2020 This article is methodological background for Oilgasfund hedge fund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 Summary Actual spread F1 – F12 is -27% vs -10% (its long term average). Based on its current level and historical observation Natural gas coming out from a bearish zone and going to move forward on a flat trajectory …

Oil trading using Rollover of futures and its history database

Alongside with Natural gas contango monetization Oilgasfund also monetize contango in Oil. This monetization process more complex and it combined with gathering of futures premiums in two directions of trade either long or short (Natural gas trading only sell side or out of positions due to huge skew in negative rolling yield that makes any …

Natural gas negative rolling yield collection strategy based on inverse UNG trading

Strategy idea – maintaining of short position in UNG in the amount of equal to own funds available on the each testing (rebalancing) date – every first working date of each month. This model is a part of trading algorithm that used by OilGasFund as hedgefund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 Source of trading model positive expectations – …

Natural Gas price forecast and futures rollover history data base

Database link (last update 29/07/2019 ) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKwSLDe1DiYrlpPes0Nt7t_UUD_3JuD7oWKxm2hBjnY/edit?usp=sharing Major events and forecasts on 29/07/2019 Contango finally appeared and started to erode UNG price that will push it to 15 USD at the end of the year. Bearish cycle on its initial phase, and will be more clearly observed as soon as current inventories vs 5 years …

Gap trading strategy: Backtest and key factors for successful implementation

Calculation link … https://drive.google.com/file/d/18ABFxd7zqzdyeoY1qHpr2xQPFU1bPSYQ/view?usp=sharing In this post, I will describe the main idea of quantitative trading and will demonstrate how it works using GAP trading model and appropriate timing tools. The modern trading algorithm based on a robust and sophisticated set of orders that reflect different execution styles and described in the post. In addition, …

Value investing in Oil and Gas pipeline industry. Traditional equities investments backed by infrastructure vs IT sector.

Dear followers and subscribers starting of the year Oil@Gas pipeline value based portfolio delivered positive result +21.51%. To get calculation details please refer to following link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16OmTMNW-21n2HEhoj_RpFvvWNO1YDpPYn6OX5qrd-Eg/edit?usp=sharing Trading strategy idea, backtest and comparison. From entire of investments alternatives most of all I prefer midstream Oil and Gas infrastructure because it will never lose its meaning …

Value based investments in Oil and Gas industry: practical guidance to outperform SPX500 return

Link to calculation sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15w4aqCoAe6X9rdpqhC4jo0w8n5CAkGinBMCUxkbWQrw/edit?usp=sharing Now as humankind coming into fourth Technological revolution, the old school of oil investment, which created a fortune for a few generations of wealthiest people in 20th Century in the first half of it, but in our days loses its ground. Oil, gas, steel and all that are created the …