Oilgasfund review and trading records

Dear subscribers and readers, as part of informational support i have decide to launch free subscription for Oilgasfund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 . Portfolio updates 20/05/2020 Long position in UGA has been closed. I increased long position in oil companies and sold another portion of call option in UNG. My assessment of Natural gas is not bearish …

Natural gas futures spread F1 – F12 as indicator of long term price trend formation and its forecast

Last update 06 May, 2020 This article is methodological background for Oilgasfund hedge fund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 Summary Actual spread F1 – F12 is -27% vs -10% (its long term average). Based on its current level and historical observation Natural gas coming out from a bearish zone and going to move forward on a flat trajectory …

USO vs BNO pair trading is unworkable

Dear friends, one of my algorithmic based strategy not works anymore. As you probably informed that WTI oil has more wider contango than Brent does. On practice that means BNO (Brent) was under less decaying in value then USO (WTI based). Hence. the trading long BNO sell USO was in good return and for years …

USO ETF vs OIL WTI spot price history of recovery from financial crisis in 2008

Dear readers, i have accelerated release of analytical marks about ongoing situation in oil. Very dramatic events in oil market and too much rumors and assumptions. From articles in my feed you can reed about contago and its impact on oil price. There are investors that consider that USO is a good opportunity to avoid …

Oil price decline and contango. Or why current crisis is unprecedented.

To know more about real trading idea please use Oilgasfund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 Dear readers, I would like to share with you some useful plots about oil price dynamic and its correlation with contango. Below is depictured contango/backwardation history for oil futures in comparison to oil price fluctuation. Main conclusions are following Oil price in downtrend …

Oil trading using Rollover of futures and its history database

Alongside with Natural gas contango monetization Oilgasfund also monetize contango in Oil. This monetization process more complex and it combined with gathering of futures premiums in two directions of trade either long or short (Natural gas trading only sell side or out of positions due to huge skew in negative rolling yield that makes any …

Natural gas negative rolling yield collection strategy based on inverse UNG trading

Strategy idea – maintaining of short position in UNG in the amount of equal to own funds available on the each testing (rebalancing) date – every first working date of each month. This model is a part of trading algorithm that used by OilGasFund as hedgefund at https://collective2.com/details/126786783 Source of trading model positive expectations – …

Natural Gas price and inventories forecast. Midterm outlook.

The introduced below forecast is not investment advice and related to the trading process that Oilgasfund use for https://collective2.com/details/126786783 . Inventories outlook has been made based on STEO model with adjustments on export-import activities Inventories outlook for the next 12 months remained in the bearish configuration. Minimum for end of withdrawal season about 2 000 …

Natural Gas price forecast and futures rollover history data base

Database link (last update 29/07/2019 ) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKwSLDe1DiYrlpPes0Nt7t_UUD_3JuD7oWKxm2hBjnY/edit?usp=sharing Major events and forecasts on 29/07/2019 Contango finally appeared and started to erode UNG price that will push it to 15 USD at the end of the year. Bearish cycle on its initial phase, and will be more clearly observed as soon as current inventories vs 5 years …

Value investing in Oil and Gas pipeline industry. Traditional equities investments backed by infrastructure vs IT sector.

Dear followers and subscribers starting of the year Oil@Gas pipeline value based portfolio delivered positive result +21.51%. To get calculation details please refer to following link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16OmTMNW-21n2HEhoj_RpFvvWNO1YDpPYn6OX5qrd-Eg/edit?usp=sharing Trading strategy idea, backtest and comparison. From entire of investments alternatives most of all I prefer midstream Oil and Gas infrastructure because it will never lose its meaning …

Value based investments in Oil and Gas industry: practical guidance to outperform SPX500 return

Link to calculation sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15w4aqCoAe6X9rdpqhC4jo0w8n5CAkGinBMCUxkbWQrw/edit?usp=sharing Now as humankind coming into fourth Technological revolution, the old school of oil investment, which created a fortune for a few generations of wealthiest people in 20th Century in the first half of it, but in our days loses its ground. Oil, gas, steel and all that are created the …

Winter months and Natural gas price dynamic

As you may see from statistic below winter is bearish period in Natural gas trading. The issue is that price fluctuation do not reflect Backwardation that almost always coming into stage in wither months that make total negative return not so skewed to downside. My general assessment for Natural gas price for coming 2 years …