Dear subscribers and readers, as part of informational support i have decide to launch free subscription for Oilgasfund at
Long position in UGA has been closed. I increased long position in oil companies and sold another portion of call option in UNG. My assessment of Natural gas is not bearish any more, but neutral with huge contango in futures term structure. Hence negative rollover yield for maintenance of long position still will be remained and I anticipate it max level in Autumn. After this time i expect more active growth in UNG, but still suppose that overall price growth will not exceed 17 USD. Long term UNG price dynamic firmly bearish with up to 18 months flat movements starting of the next year. For more details please refer to portfolio link above.
I have bought UGA of cyclical trading in oil related assets . Portion in portfolio is 5% . Below plotted chart with comparison of WTI price (untradable) , USO and UGA . You van see how UGA is relevantly batter then USO due to less contango impact . Moreover in deficit time UGA outperform WTI price due to huge backwardation in RBOB futures .
- Another portion has been sold of UNG call with strikes 16, 17 and expiration on 15 of May. My expectation is bearish for natgas and i keep going contango and option premium gathering
- CALL option has been expired for UNG and you can see that marked as 1.
Since start of the year i conducted 9 transactions an mainly it was selling of call options. You can look at Portfolio structure after subscription. I going to maintain short in UNG and expect it decline to 10 till the year end. Also i will add long in XLE if price will move to 25.