Macroeconomic forecast. Measuring of contraction risk in US economy.

Last posting 09/08/2019

In prior observation, I have pointed out worsening conditions that increased risk of recession such as Delinquency rate +2 points, Corporate profit +1 and Loan provision rate +1 point. The total score was 22 points and it corresponding to recession risk equal to 30%. Only one metric was marked as positive – labor market. For this macro forecasted I revised labor market conditions from positive to the neutral and updated matrix of risk with recession risk equal – 33% for the next 12 months.

Based on the suggested macro forecast the oil, natural gas, and industrial commodities can be under big sell-off. Also, I will increase defensive mode for Spxhedgefund tradable at Etoro.

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